2018's Top 3 Contenders for Best Picture
The Oscars race continues after nominations were released on January 23. Nine films were nominated for Best Picture: Call Me By Your Name, Darkest Hour, Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird, Phantom Thread, The Post, The Shape of Water, and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. The 90th Academy Awards are just over a month away (March 4) and there are three frontrunners in the mix to take the top prize. Let's explore how a dark horse, a social statement, and a love letter make up the top contenders at this year's Academy Awards.
1. Dunkirk...The Dark Horse
Why It Could Win: Dunkirk is Christopher Nolan's tenth film and received wide critical and popular acclaim upon its release in July, making over $500 million at the box office. While Nolan has consistently made popular films, this film has been one of his best for awards nominations, garnering 8 at the Oscars (tied for his personal best with The Dark Knight and Inception). Furthermore, Dunkirk's concept is Academy bait through and through - an inspirational war story based on true events. In fact, 16 war films have won the Oscar for Best Picture (not a bad rate for a genre film) and considering the unique structure of Nolan's story, it has a shot at upsetting the field this year and winning it all.
Why It May Not: Dunkirk is carrying very little momentum into this year's Academy Awards. To this point, it hasn't won Best Picture at any major awards shows, and despite impressive acting, there is no single performance in the film that makes it stand out in acting categories either. For better or for worse, Academy voters most definitely look to previous awards shows when casting their votes, and Dunkirk's lack of awards does not bode well for its chances.
2. Three Billboards...The Social Statement
Why It Could Win: At its heart, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri makes one of the biggest social statements of any film this year, one that resonates now more than ever. The film focuses on the aftermath of a girl's death following a sexual assault, and how her mother faces off against the powerful men of the town in order to ensure her daughter gets justice. Given the sexual misconduct allegations that have been at the front of media coverage this year, and the push for more female roles in Hollywood, a film containing sexual assault and an incredibly strong female lead is sure to be in the running. Many critics are in agreement with this message, since Three Billboards has already won the Golden Globe and BAFTA for Best Picture.
Why It May Not: Three Billboards is not as widely known as its competitors. In fact, Martin McDonagh's performance-driven film made only 10% of Dunkirk's box office earnings. Money is not the only factor in awards voting, but the studio needs to distribute the film as widely as possible in order for the most voters to see. With such a small box office return and working with only a $12 million budget, it may be difficult for this film to shine in the spotlight. There has also been a growing backlash related to a racist character's portrayal in the film, which may affect the final voting.
3. The Shape of Water...The Love Letter
Why It Could Win: Although it has made the least amount of money of the three films listed here, The Shape of Water is a critical darling, earning 13 nominations at the Academy Awards (1 short of the record-holders All About Eve, Titanic and La La Land). In addition, it has taken home Best Picture from the Critics' Choice Awards and American Film Institute, and is nominated for the same prize in several upcoming awards shows. This film is a classic love letter to Hollywood, managing to combine everything from a "creature feature" feel to a musical number into one coherent love story.
Why It May Not: Although the film certainly has strength in numbers, we have seen highly nominated films lose out in the past. Even last year's La La Land, despite winning 5 Oscars, failed to take home Best Picture (a spectacle most fans will never forget). All that is to say that occasionally it can be dangerous for a film to receive too much recognition before the Oscars, especially when it is up against strong competition. In addition, the film is certainly the strangest of the bunch. It's often hard to predict whether the Academy will be entranced by a "weird" art film or simply dislike it.
Which film do you think should win Best Picture? Comment below and let us know!